It’s not unreasonable for people to have concerns about the unknown.  When we hear reports of issues like the Coronavirus (COVID-19) spreading, it’s easy to feel uncomfortable about what might happen. Keeping yourself and your family safe is always the first priority. But what should you do regarding your investments?  The answer is probably nothing.

Looking back to the last global virus of a comparable nature – SARS – might help provide a little context.

There are no definitive timelines for when SARS started and stopped, but broadly speaking the virus was responsible for the loss of life over an eight-month period between November 2002 and July 2003.

It was certainly an unusual time.  For anyone travelling overseas in that period, they may recall individual health screening at certain country’s borders (Singapore in particular took highly precautionary measures).  At the time most travellers felt unsettled about the environment around them, but even then, people continued to go on with their lives.  Business and commerce still functioned.

Interestingly, our model portfolios performed well over that 8-month period.  In spite of SARS and the increased global uncertainty surrounding it, our portfolios were up between 4% and 5% after fund management fees.  By the end of the first 12 months since SARS was first observed, portfolios were up between 6.8% (a 20/80 portfolio) and 11.6% (a 98/2 portfolio).

While investors might have chosen to sell out of their investments due the early uncertainty, it would most likely have been a poor decision given the subsequent performance of the markets.  In fact, if anything, the early uncertainty surrounding SARS created a buying opportunity as market volatility increased.

It may also be worth noting that SARS had a mortality rate of approximately 9.6%.  How is this relevant?  Well, perhaps it isn’t, but the Coronavirus has a mortality rate currently hovering around 2% and doctors are predicting it will ultimately be less than 1%.

Whether that makes it less scary than SARS might be a moot point but, regardless, the markets treated investors fairly well through the SARS outbreak and there is no reason that the same won’t happen through the Coronavirus outbreak as well.
As at February 27th, most of our model portfolios have been only modestly impacted by the increased market volatility experienced over the last week.  Year to date, the approximate performances of our model portfolios range from +0.3% for our lowest risk portfolio (a 20/80 portfolio) to -7.0% for a 98/2 portfolio which has virtually all its assets allocated to higher risk assets.  For many, a better indicator may be something closer to a balanced 50/50 portfolio which is currently showing a year to date return of -2.0%.

The media are doing their best to paint a picture that markets are crashing, but these sorts of returns, whether Coronavirus was an issue or not, are not out of the ordinary for portfolios containing allocations to higher risk assets.

Of course, SARS isn’t the only global health scare to have hit the headlines in the last 20 years.  Even though it’s a challenge – even in hindsight – to identify precisely when a pandemic officially starts or ends, it can often be useful to look back and observe how similar events in the past treated investors.

The following table highlights a few of the higher profile pandemics in recent history.  We have identified an estimated start date for each of these pandemics (which, in most cases, is when they first began being widely reported in the public domain).  We have then looked at the subsequent performance of a balanced 50/50 model portfolio (i.e. a portfolio with half of its funds allocated to risky assets) over the next three months, six months and 12 months.

The results may surprise you…

                           Note: Each time period relates to the time elapsed since the start date.

Within the first few months, the performance of markets and portfolios can be mixed.  During SARS in particular, which was the first global pandemic to emerge in quite some time, the early reaction of equity markets was quite negative.  During the Avian Flu outbreak a few years later, it was relatively flat.  But what’s even more striking is that within 6 and 12 months from the start of each of these outbreaks – regardless of their perceived severity – the performance of markets and the returns of model portfolios had generally all rebounded strongly.

What will happen in the weeks ahead with respect to the Coronavirus outbreak?

The truth is that no-one knows.  The markets today are really just reflecting the current heightened uncertainty in the form of lower prices.  As soon as there is new information (good or bad) that will also get priced in.  And when the tone of the news flow gradually changes from contagion to containment and, eventually, cure, then we should anticipate the improving risk outlook will be positive for risky assets which, this week especially, have come under increased pricing pressure.

The Coronavirus can be added to the list of issues that might make an investor think about selling but, as with all the other potential reasons on that list, our general response is that it’s unlikely to be a good idea.  Although we can’t see into the future, we can observe the past, and in the other major pandemics we have witnessed in recent times, the best recommendation has always been to stay focused on the long term and maintain your strategy.

Please contact our office immediately if you have concerns or questions

The post Fight or Flight – The Coronavirus Dilemma appeared first on Collaborative Consulting Ltd.

1. Education and personal background
Going through the history and backstory of your potential financial consultant is a great place to start. It’s important to learn why an adviser feels they hold an opinion of worth or authority on the subject. It’s best to go with consultants who have proven that they are able to use their knowledge to achieve practical, perceptible results for their clients.
Usually, an adviser will display this information somewhere publicly, as it’s a major selling point for them. Look through their website, or any articles they may have written on other websites or their LinkedIn profile, in order to garner an understanding of their thought process, policies and practices, and qualifications.

2. Formal certifications
It’s a great sign that a consultant is serious about their work when they have put effort into broadening or deepening their understanding of financial planning through various certifications. You can examine any certifications they might list, and even do some light research into the certifications themselves, to see what is required to receive them.

3. Fees
Knowing how a consultant expects to be compensated is important, because you – as a client – need to understand their incentives and possible conflicts of interest. Usually, a consultant is paid through ‘fee-only’ client fees, commissions, or a mix of both, known as ‘fee-based’. A conflict of interest is only really possible if you are planning to work with someone through commissions. While good financial advisers work very hard not to allow themselves to be influenced by these aspects of their work, it can happen involuntarily, or accidentally.
Fees are usually structured one of three ways: hourly, flat, or ‘assets under management’, which refers to a percentage of the assets that they manage for you.

4. Compliance requirements
All financial advisers in New Zealand are required to comply with the Financial Advisers Act 2008, also known as the FA Act. The requirements for complying with the act are different based on the types of services provided, so it’s important to look into which type of adviser you are looking at partnering with, and whether or not they comply with the correct part of the FA Act. The different categories include Authorised Financial Advisers (AFAs), Registered Financial Advisers (RFAs), and Qualifying Financial Entity Advisers (QFEs).

5. Working relationship
Before committing to a relationship, you need to know what it will be like. How does contact begin? How often will you meet? Do they operate over the phone, or exclusively in person? Also make sure you know how transparent the adviser is. Many financial consultants prefer to work ‘behind a curtain’ and tell their clients not to worry about how any of it works, but it could be important for you to have them answer questions about your investments. If that’s the case, it’s worth finding a consultant who’s happy to explain how they operate in clear and understandable terms.

Not all financial advisers are created equal
Ultimately, every client has different priorities, and so does each and every consultant. Entering into a working relationship with a consultant who is a bad fit could end up costing you considerably down the line, so it’s worth paying attention to the process before you even begin investing money. Put in the effort to check these five points and you’ll be able to comfortably and easily reach your goals. Talk to Collaborative Consulting today for goals-driven financial advice, and find out what makes us New Zealand’s trusted financial planning experts!

The post 5 Tips for Choosing the Best Financial Adviser for You appeared first on Collaborative Consulting Ltd.

How does investing in shares work?
When you buy a share, you buy a small piece of a company and a ‘share’ of any profits that the company makes. Shares are a good long-term investment as they can rise and fall in value in the short term but tend to increase at a rate higher than inflation in the long term – and can be bought either directly or through a fund like KiwiSaver.

Returns from shares come in the form of capital gains, where a share is sold for more than you paid for it, or in dividends, where the company pays out a share of the profits they’ve earned to shareholders. Dividends can be received in cash, or can be reinvested into the company in order to buy more shares.

What is the role of shares as part of an investment portfolio?
With a few exceptions, it’s generally not a good idea to invest entirely in shares or entirely in bonds within an investment portfolio, so you’ll normally find a mix of shares and bonds within any portfolio.

While bonds are a fixed-term investment with an accurate expected rate of return, bonds are an ongoing investment without an end date and with the potential to earn a higher return. For the most part, someone will depend more on bonds within their investment portfolio later in life, whereas someone in the early stages of their investment career can put a greater focus on shares, as they aren’t going to imminently retire.

What is Collaborative Consulting’s approach to shares?
When deciding which investments to make for your portfolio investment, the four main factors we use to assess shares are: market, company size, relative price, and profitability.

Market – the overall state of the market – as well as the client’s needs – will help to determine the degree to which we invest in shares vs. bonds as part of a portfolio.
Company size – while large companies are the safer option for investment, smaller companies can often bring premium returns and have the potential to become high-value investments.
Relative price – we aim to distinguish ‘growth companies’ from ‘value companies’: the former have strong earnings growth potential, while the latter are undervalued by the market.
Profitability – companies can fairly easily be classified as high-profit companies or low-profit companies, so it’s easy to put together an estimate of how much profit a potential investment will be making.

If you’re looking for a financial advisor that will take the time to fully understand your needs before starting an investment profile that balances shares and bonds in a way that aims to increase and maximise your net wealth, then Collaborative Consulting are the experts for you. With the aim to bring all our clients financial certainty while allowing them to prosper in the financial future, we are the best choice for anyone that wants help achieving their lifetime financial goals.

The post The Basics of Investing in Shares appeared first on Collaborative Consulting Ltd.

While this is the retirement that most of us dream about, many of us also put off planning the entire thing. The reality is that if we continue to delay retirement planning, we go against our own vision of the future. As with all good things, preparing for retirement requires sensible financial planning, hard work, and persistence.

Here at Collaborative Consulting, we believe in providing resources that empower people to bring their retirement dream to life. Here are some basics on retirement planning to get you started:

Step 1: Set Realistic Goals
We cannot work hard to achieve something if we don’t know what we’re reaching for. The first step requires setting realistic goals and finding out what retirement really means to you. Not everyone’s dream retirement looks the same, so list down the things you may want to do or achieve once you reach retirement, then plan to save money accordingly.

Step 2: Evaluate How Much You Need
Before you start putting money away, you must figure out how much you will need. Contrary to popular belief, there is no such thing as a “magic number” when it comes to retirement savings – only you can measure what’s enough. Adequate financial requirements depend on many factors, including:

• Standard of living during retirement
• Projected annual living expenses
• Medical costs
• Target retirement age
• Life expectancy
• Income sources

Assessing your needs will help inform your choices at the next step:

Step 3: Figure Out Where The Money Will Come From
Your retirement funds can come from a variety of sources. Generally, most retirement funds come from employment savings, KiwiSaver and NZ Supers. Here in New Zealand, we’re fortunate enough to receive government pensions paid to Kiwis over the age of 65 through the NZ Superannuation. However, it’s never safe to rely on the bare minimum, as unforeseen medical expenses and other life changes can disrupt our financial stability.

Investing your savings to make them grow faster is another well-trodden path to generating passive income during retirement.

Step 4: Build A Retirement Nest Egg
Creating an investment portfolio that will fund your future retirement is essential. It’s about creating a financial investment strategy that works for you and fulfils your personal financial goals. Talk to a financial advisor who offers independent advice on savings and investment planning to help you create a comfortable nest egg for retirement.

Collaborative Consulting: Retirement Planning Experts

While we’ve provided a quick breakdown of retirement planning basics, there’s much more to it than what we’ve listed, including asset and estate planning, how to leave a financial legacy for your family, and much more.

If you need help reaching your retirement goals, we’re here to help. Together with our Auckland financial advisors here at Collaborative Consulting, we can help you secure your financial future. Contact us today for a free consultation at 0800 225 665!

The post Retirement Planning Basics appeared first on Collaborative Consulting Ltd.

A Strong Investment Philosophy Builds Discipline

An investment philosophy is a set of beliefs and principles that guide an investor’s decision-making process. Since investing is a long and winding road, and the journey can be challenging and frustrating, a strong investment philosophy acts as an anchor from which investors base their decisions. Over a lifetime, investors will face many decisions that are prompted by events within and outside their control. Without a strong investment philosophy to inform their choices, these events can lead them into making poor decisions, damaging their long-term financial well-being.

Ultimately, an investment philosophy is a stronghold that helps maintain investment discipline no matter what surprise events may temporarily shock the market, gently guiding their reactions toward market events and positively influencing outcomes.

A Strong Investment Philosophy Develops Consistency

David Booth, Founder and Executive Chairman of Dimensional Fund Advisors, offers this advice for those pursuing their financial goals:

‘The important thing about an investment philosophy is that you have one you can stick with.’

An enduring investment philosophy is built on solid principles backed by decades of reliable empirical academic evidence. These principles help investors maintain discipline, react better to market events, and resist the siren calls of new investment fads. Only through understanding how markets work and maintaining a long-term perspective on past events can investors focus on ensuring that their responses to events are consistent with their long-term plan.

It is, therefore, crucial to have an investment philosophy you can stick with, and one that can help you stay the course even as market conditions change.

The ‘Collaborative Understanding’ Investment Philosophy

Here at Collaborative Consulting, our investment philosophy is in our name. The ‘Collaborative Understanding’ investment philosophy is centred on learning what matters to you and creating a tailored financial plan that helps you fulfil your personal financial goals. This guides our team of expert financial advisors throughout every step of the way, from the initial consultation through to implementing independent investment strategies that help investors prosper in their financial future.

Giving you personalised financial advice designed according to what your life and lifestyle will look and feel like in the future allows us to develop a realistic goal-driven roadmap to get you there. This collaborative philosophy is based on the main principle that everyone’s journeys and goals are different, and that the best financial results are always achieved through building trust and successful collaboration.

Our team of financial advisors act as experienced counsellors when responding to events and provide the foundation of a strong collaborative investment philosophy that has served us and our clients well throughout the years, helping many achieve their own versions of financial success.

To set you on a path to investing your money wisely, contact the team here at Collaborative Consulting for a free consultation today!

The post Why Financial Success Starts with a Strong Investment Philosophy appeared first on Collaborative Consulting Ltd.

We’ve compiled some common key takeaways that retirees have said when asked, “What would you do differently if you could go back in time?” to provide some helpful advice for would-be retirees. Read some of these retirement planning takeaways from actual experts below:

1. Focus on what you can control.
This starts with your money. Having money doesn’t give you happiness, but not having any money at all is sure to give you troubles, and this is especially true during retirement. Controlling your finances can be difficult and requires a lot of discipline, but as with all financial plans, financial control starts with saving.

Most retirees will assert that simply saving isn’t enough – one must save diligently. This means putting as much money away as you can, as early as you can. Another way to save is simply to not spend – living beyond one’s own means and spending needlessly will make you fall behind. Most successful retirees still drive their old cars and refuse to buy new ones. Just because you have money to spend doesn’t mean you have to spend it.

Another way of accumulating money is investing – it’s part of any comprehensive financial plan.

2. Prepare for what you can’t control.
Life generally never goes 100% according to plan, so the best we can do is to prepare for the unexpected. Accidents, health problems, family issues, and other unprecedented events can cause economic shocks in our lives, making the best of us dig into our savings way earlier than we would have liked.

As an extension of the previous advice, retirees assert that they could have prepared for these sorts of events by saving way more than they thought they needed. Saving those extra dollars act as a cushion to help you deal with life curve balls. Having adequate insurance cover will also help you prepare for any unforeseen life events.

3. Think about life in retirement.
You can become so engrossed with ensuring your retirement plan is on track that you forget to think about what your retirement lifestyle will look like. Do you imagine yourself travelling or staying at home looking after your grandkids? Will you be involved in any sort of charity or community organisation? What will keep you busy, and what sort of contribution do you want to make in this world?

Regrets often sound like this: “I should have done…” or “I would have done this differently if only…” Retirement can give you time to explore some if not all of the things you’ve always wanted to do but never made the time to, such as learning new skills or taking up a new sport. Simply worrying or mulling over your retirement plan can take the joy out of experiencing life with your family and friends as well, so aim to strike a balance between the two.

At the end of the day, there is always a “lesson learned” regardless of whether people experience success or failure in their day-to-day lives, including those who are currently in retirement.

If you need a comprehensive financial plan to help you prepare for a fulfilling and comfortable future, we can help you. Contact us right here at Collaborative Consulting to arrange your free initial two-hour consultation. We’ll work together to achieve realistic life goals that allow you to prosper in your financial future.

The post What Retirees Would Do Differently if They Could Go Back in Time appeared first on Collaborative Consulting Ltd.

Financial planning is intricately tied to a business’ core processes. It’s a necessary practice for any business owner and should be done regularly, ideally before every start of a new financial year.

Financial planning means budgeting for your business on a grander and much more complex scale. The process includes analysing past reports, forecasting net revenue, estimating operating costs, understanding risks, and much more.

A realistic financial plan should be at the core of any business strategy. Here are some reasons why financial planning is so important for any business:

1. Financial planning creates a revenue model.
A good financial plan acts as a revenue model, which includes calculating potential profit and loss. Tracking your cash flow and comparing it with your financial plan helps you analyse where your business is currently at. Having a plan allows you to measure actual progress relative to where you envisioned it to be at the beginning of your financial year.

2. It sets realistic goals and growth opportunities.
Financial planning is a way of setting goals that are realistically attainable for your organisation, as it projects a certain amount of revenue after an extended period of time. It acts as a wide, long-range lens to ensure that the business continues to grow. This makes it essential in facilitating growth and expansion programs to ensure a company’s long-term survival.

3. It provides logic for sound decision-making.
Your financial plan is a guide to running your business – it helps you create a realistic strategy with well-defined steps for achieving profitable growth. You cannot make a bold business move, whether it’s an investment or a purchase, without first consulting this guide. A financial plan enables proactive decision-making, as well as financial stability and control, which can be achieved only with careful, professional planning.

4. It ensures adequate funds.
Running a business requires many resources. A financial plan ensures that the many aspects of your business such as marketing, labour, equipment and many others, have been allocated adequate funds so it continues to run smoothly. Your plan should also account for a set amount of emergency reserves to remedy unforeseen issues. If your cash reserve is adequate, you’ll sleep peacefully at night knowing you’re prepared.

5. It tracks your liabilities.
Financial planning requires analysis of your company’s liabilities, long-term debt and owner equity. We may only want to look at current assets, but liabilities need to be monitored carefully to further aid you in resource allocations and budget planning. Your financial plan will schedule any debt repayments, or help you when considering new liabilities, ultimately empowering you to fully understand your business’ finances and profitability.

Financial planning for your business can feel like a daunting, aimless and unscientific task. At Collaborative Consulting we work closely with you so you can create a measurable, results-driven financial plan geared towards significant growth. Feel free to get in touch. We always love to hear from business owners.

The post The Importance of Financial Planning for Your Business appeared first on Collaborative Consulting Ltd.

From April to June 2017 diversified portfolios again delivered generally positive returns, although at a more subdued rate than investors have become accustomed to in recent quarters.

For much of the second quarter major markets were relatively benign, perhaps distracted by the prolonged attention given to two very important elections in Europe.

The first was the victory by 39 year old Emmanuel Macron’s upstart En Marche! political party in France.

This result was the latest in a recent string of good news for Europe.

Already, Macron is shaping up as just the tonic Europe needs. A fierce critic of Brexit, he wants to ensure that the UK gets no special treatment during its upcoming divorce proceedings.

He also champions Greek debt relief, an issue which has plagued the euro zone for years because of Germany’s fierce opposition to it. If Macron can help Germany and Greece inch forward on this issue, it would do wonders for EU morale.

Economically speaking, Europe is already in much better shape than it was a few years ago. Every country in the EU is now growing (even Greece…just). Data for the first quarter of 2017 showed the euro zone economy picking up more momentum, even as UK and US growth rates fell short of their forecasts.

In terms of its politics, Europe is looking more progressive. Austria, the Netherlands, and now France have all voted in pro-European leaders, rather than inward-looking populists. Next cab off the rank is Germany, which heads to the polls in September and where Angela Merkel – one of the EU’s biggest supporters – is a short odds favourite.

Unfortunately, the uplifting result in France could not have been in greater contrast to the almost farcical outcome of the UK elections in early June.

In mid-April, when Theresa May called for an early election to attempt to shore up her position at the Brexit negotiating table, the Conservatives held a 19 point lead in the polls. Only seven weeks later, they suffered the humiliation of having to form a minority government.

In what has been referred to as ‘the revenge of the remain voters’, the Conservatives embarrassingly saw their parliamentary seats fall from 331 to just 318; below the 326 needed for an absolute majority.

It was far from the unifying result Theresa May had hoped for. With inflation on the rise and Britain, for the first time since the mid-1990s, holding the mantle of the slowest- growing country in the European Union, the Conservatives headed into the Brexit negotiations with their tails between their legs.

In any summary of political events we, of course, cannot forget about Donald Trump. The US election may have been in November last year, but it seems the world is still struggling to come to grips with ‘The Donald’.

The best thing Trump supporters can find to say about the US president is that ‘he does what he says he will do’. That might have been perceived as a bigger virtue, except the things he says he will do are usually divisive, often strategically and ethically questionable, and nearly always controversial. Scrapping US involvement in the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal and failing to ratify the Paris Accord on climate change are two examples.

While global investors might well be concerned about some of the policies emanating from the Oval Office promoting increased US separatism and greater racial inequality, that hasn’t translated into any reduced demand for US business output or debt securities.

In that sense, the market response is entirely rational. Regardless of the latest Trump tweet or seat-of-the-pants policy initiative, the demand for Big Macs, or iPhones or Cadillacs, hasn’t been affected, and is unlikely to be. Consumerism is inherently apolitical.

As if to reinforce this, the headline US S&P 500 Index registered a gain of 3.1% for the quarter and is now up 17.9% for the last 12 months, and 14.6% pa for the last five years. Other notable equity market results for the quarter were in Japan, where the Nikkei 225 gained 6.1%, and in France, where the CAC 40 Index gained 2.4%. In fact, it was a solid quarter for most developed share markets, with only five of the 23 developed markets tracked by MSCI indices returning negative results.

Emerging markets were, in typical fashion, more volatile. Thankfully, that volatility was more positive than negative this quarter, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Gross Index up 6.4% in US dollar terms. Some of the notable individual results contributing to this performance came from China +11.0% and Korea +12.8%. At the other end of the scale, the Russian sharemarket fell -6.0%, hurt by ongoing oil price weakness and by the Trump administration, against expectations, not repealing sanctions imposed in 2014 which punished Russia for its role in the Ukraine crisis.

The local New Zealand sharemarket delivered a strong result, with the S&P/NZX 50 Index (gross with imputation) gaining 5.9%. This was comfortably ahead of the result of our Australian neighbours, where the S&P/ASX 200 Index returned -1.6%.

New Zealand’s strong sharemarket performance may partly be a reflection that economic conditions here continue to look solid and business confidence remains strong. Positive business sentiment certainly bodes well for the future growth rates and profitability of New Zealand facing businesses. On the other hand, while overall Australian data also generally continues to beat expectations, the tailwinds supporting economic growth in Australia appear less consistent, as a spate of company earnings downgrades in June served to highlight.

In the midst of all of this, the New Zealand dollar strengthened over the quarter against both the US dollar (up 4.5%) and the Australian dollar (up 3.9%). A stronger NZ dollar has the effect of reducing the New Zealand dollar value of any unhedged assets denominated in either US or Australian dollars, and that contributed to slightly lower reported returns this quarter.

Global bond markets had been relatively uneventful for much of the quarter, although this changed rather sharply towards the end of June when European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, announced that “the global recovery is firming and broadening and a key issue facing policymakers is ensuring that this promising growth becomes sustainable.”

These comments resonated strongly with the market, as they coincided with comments made by Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, about the potential need to reverse the post Brexit rate cut in the UK, and comments from Bank of Canada Governor, Stephen Poloz, about the potential need to reverse the post oil price crash (2014/2015) rate cut in Canada. In addition, earlier in the month the US Federal Reserve had already signalled its determination to progressively remove stimulus in the US by lifting the Federal Funds rate from 1.00% to 1.25%.

What was less anticipated was the Federal Reserve retaining their future rate projections of one increase in 2017, followed by three hikes in 2018, and another three hikes in 2019.

This is almost the exact opposite of the approach being taken by our own Reserve Bank. In last month’s Monetary Policy Statement, the Reserve Bank looked through a string of firmer New Zealand inflation indicators and maintained their earlier projections that New Zealand rates will remain at record lows until 2019. It is apparent that the Reserve Bank believe raising rates too early – something they regretted in doing in 2014 – could undermine domestic growth.

Even though all bond markets felt some impact from Draghi’s comments and spiked upwards over the last week in June, it was not a sizable enough reaction to impact returns greatly. By the end of the quarter the Citigroup World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years (hedged to NZD) had gained 0.59%, while the slightly longer duration Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index (hedged to NZD) advanced 1.22%. These were both satisfactory results, given the still compressed global yield curves.

All in all, while it was an extremely interesting quarter on the global stage, it was a relatively quiet quarter in the markets.

The ‘glass half empty’ view of this would be that we didn’t get another three months of the kind of excellent returns we have experienced with surprising regularity in recent years. The ‘glass half full’ view would be that diversified investors still came out ahead for the quarter, and we got a non-painful reminder that markets can’t be expected to only ever go up, and in large leaps.

For all long term investors, this was simply another positive step along the road towards the achievement of your ultimate investment goals and objectives.

And, by that most important of all measures, it was another successful quarter.

Note: Unless otherwise stated, all index returns are quoted on a home currency returns basis.

The post Winter Update appeared first on Collaborative Consulting Ltd.

This comment gives the impression that the past market gains were obviously going to occur. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Yes, many share markets have surged since March 2009. In fact, it’s been one of the strongest eight year rallies in history. However, if you think any of that was perfectly foreseeable – or easy – you are suffering from a severe case of ‘hindsight bias’.

Hindsight bias (also known as the ‘I knew it all along phenomenon’) is the irresistible tendency to believe – after an experiment, sports event, election or investment, for example – that the outcome was foreseeable. After the share market drops (it was “due for a correction”) or an election is lost (by a “terrible candidate”), the outcome seems obvious, and thus, blameworthy.

However, as research shows, we often do not expect something to happen until it does. Only then do we clearly see the forces that triggered the event, and feel unsurprised. Because outcomes seem as if they should have been foreseeable, we are more likely to blame decision makers for what are, in retrospect, ‘obvious’ bad choices, rather than praise them for good ones (which also seem obvious). As the 19th century philosopher Søren Kierkegaard said, “Life is lived forwards, but understood backwards.”

At every step during the last eight years there has been a seemingly persuasive argument that share values had risen too far and were bound to fall.

In 2009 there was much written about the world teetering on the edge of the second Great Depression. In 2010 we were concerned about the European debt crisis and the overvaluation of share markets. 2011 saw oil prices jump 25% and the threat of a double dip recession. 2012 saw Greece fall apart (for the first time). 2013 saw a downgrade in US debt. 2014 saw the end of quantitative easing and a slowdown in the Chinese economy. In 2015 it was Greece (again), China (again) and slumping commodities markets. And last year it was Brexit and Donald Trump.

You can go back even further than this and the picture doesn’t change. Every year without exception there has been a compelling reason to worry and an argument to sell shares. Clearly, it has been far from easy over the past eight years. In fact, the future was just as uncertain and scary back then as it might appear to be today.

Only in hindsight do things look so obvious, like, “of course stocks were easy money in 2009. They were abnormally cheap and the US economy was just about to enter a multiyear recovery.” But how many people actually believed that in 2009? Not many.

The reason you make money in the share market is because you are willing to hold assets where the future is unknown, bad things can happen, and outcomes are far from certain. Ultimately, you are getting paid for assuming these risks. There is never, ever, such a thing as easy money. There are only hindsight perceptions, and those perceptions are twisted by time and rewritten in our heads as memories of something they weren’t.

What are the takeaways from all of this…?

1. Unsustainable markets can last for years longer than you think. The entire history of economics is a continuous ride of unsustainable booms and busts. We may be able to come up with a statistical average of where things should eventually revert to, but the economy and the share market rarely spend any time near average.

“It’s different this time” is not the most dangerous phrase in investing. “I’ll invest when things are back to normal” is far worse.

2. Good investing takes effort and often involves pain. Investors pay a high price for comfort and get paid a high price for doing what few others will. That will always be the case.

3. The future is as uncertain as the past is obvious, but it’s easy to convince yourself of the opposite.

The post Vision Blurred by Hindsight Bias appeared first on Collaborative Consulting Ltd.

They predicted financial Armageddon when there was increased volatility in China at the start of the year. It never eventuated.

Then came the surprise Brexit vote at the end of June and the naysayers came out in force again. “As we predicted”, they said, “the end is nigh”. Wrong again.

In fact, for investors with a 40% or higher allocation to riskier growth assets, the third quarter of 2016 represented the second best quarter in the last three and a half years! In other words, investors who blocked out the uninformed media noise and stuck to their strategy were rewarded with strong returns, while those who acted on the noise quickly regretted it.

In such a good quarter, it’s not surprising that most asset classes performed above expectations.

With central banks committing to continue with accommodative monetary policy settings and an easing in concerns over the impact of the UK’s vote to exit the European Union, global equity markets were major beneficiaries of the improving investor sentiment.

Emerging market equities led all sectors, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gaining 9.15% in US dollar terms and 7.03% for unhedged New Zealand dollar investors. Signs of greater stabilisation in the Chinese economy provided strong support for the region’s markets, as did additional stimulus from global central banks which outweighed earlier concerns about the potential pace of the US interest rate normalisation process.

Australasian equities also performed with distinction, with the New Zealand and Australian markets both enjoying a strong period. In New Zealand, large companies with relative earnings and dividend stability did particularly well, while a rally in metals prices saw similarly strong performances from metals and mining companies in Australia. New Zealand’s S&P/ NZX 50 Gross Index recorded a gain of 6.72% for the quarter, while Australia’s S&P/ ASX 200 Total Return Index rose 5.14% in Australian dollars.

Hedged international developed market equities were not far behind, with the MSCI World ex Australia Index (hedged to NZD) rising 5.23%. The US market advanced on better than expected second quarter earnings results and British and European shares even joined the bounce-back party, in spite of sizable outflows from mutual funds investing primarily in European shares.

The MSCI World ex Australia Index (unhedged) was up 2.75% in New Zealand dollar terms. The fact that the unhedged index generated a return almost 2.5% lower than the comparable hedged index indicates the New Zealand dollar, on average, strengthened over the period against its major trading partners.

While these all represented very attractive quarterly results, the bulk of these gains were in fact delivered in the first four to six weeks of the period, as global equity markets bounced sharply off their post-Brexit lows. Whilst risk aversion levels spiked in late June during the immediate aftermath of Brexit, July was emphatically a ‘risk on’ period, and the strong recovery in July went a long way to ensuring an attractive overall return for the quarter.

With the USFederal Reserve still hinting at the prospect of a further rate hike before the end of the year, the global listed property sector was only flat for the quarter with the S&P Global REIT Total Return Index up just 0.02% in USdollar terms. This was a notable departure for an asset class which has consistently been amongst the strongest contributors over the past three to five years.

In contrast, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reduced the Official Cash Rate by another 0.25% in August, citing weak global growth and that New Zealand’s relatively high interest rates were placing upward pressure on the exchange rate. Additionally, the RBNZ indicated further easing would be likely to ensure future inflation settles near the mid-point of the target range. In this environment, domestic listed property assets held up much better than their international counterparts, with the S&P/ NZXAll Real Estate Index gaining 2.06%.

Similarly, the domestic bond market benefitted from a moderating New Zealand interest rate outlook. In July, when the local market was pricing an almost 100% probability that the RBNZ would cut rates by 0.25% in August (which they subsequently did), the New Zealand ten year government bond yield fell from 2.35% to an all-time low of under 2.20%. This strengthened demand for local bonds and propelled the S&P/ NZXA-Grade Corporate Bond Index to a gain of 0.96% for July alone, and 1.61% for the full three months to Septem ber.

In international bond markets there was a little more variability in interest rate movements, which was highlighted by the respective performances of major ten year government bond yields. Through the quarter, US yields increased by 12.5 basis points with the Federal Reserve still pointing to future rate hikes, while comparable German yields were flat and UKyields fell by 12 basis points. In this environment the returns from international bond markets were a little more subdued than they had been for the first half of this year, with the Citigroup World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years (hedged to New Zealand dollars) gaining 0.55% for the quarter while the longer duration Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index (hedged to New Zealand dollars) gained 0.97%.

When the dust finally settled at the end of September, well diversified investors could look back with some satisfaction at having achieved attractive returns for the period. The earlier negative speculation about China and the more recent Brexit bears both delivered far more bark than bite, and not even the flickering prospect of a Donald Trump presidency in the USA was enough to derail the bounce-back gains investors enjoyed this quarter.

So will the media always get their predictions as badly wrong as they have so far this year?

Well, not if they stick to making consistently negative forecasts. Even though markets on average go up, there will always be periods in the future when the markets will disappoint. But no one – and certainly not the mainstream media ‘experts’ – has any idea exactly when that will be. If they keep crying wolf at every piece of negative news, then the law of averages says that one day, the markets will agree with them. Unfortunately, given their overall abysmal track record in predicting the future, it will only be a coincidence when that happens. After all, even a broken clock is right twice a day, but it’s still a broken clock.

Unless their financial adviser is a newspaper editor, investors should shut out the media noise and stick to the carefully considered investment strategies designed with their specific long term goals and objectives in mind.

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